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The Weekly Brief

Bitcoin fell 30% this year. Buying $50 a week, you're down 1%.

Issue 1 · August 25, 2026

Bitcoin rose about 22% this week. You'll see plenty of people celebrating that, and I'd rather give you the fuller picture: even after a week like this one, Bitcoin is sitting only about a third of the way up its range for the past year. A strong week inside a hard year is still a hard year.

I don't write this brief to tell you which way the price is going. Nobody knows that, and anyone who says otherwise is selling something. I write it to show you what actually happened, what things cost right now, and how to keep what you own safe.

Where Things Stand

Descriptive context. Not a forecast.

Price
$78,809
+0.2% past 24h
Past week
+22.2%
seven days
Past month
+22.5%
thirty days
52-week range
31%
of the way from $59k to $125k
Bitcoin price, past year$60k$80k$100k$120k20252026

Solid line: price. Dashed: 200-day average.

What It Costs To Move Coins

The number that actually matters if you are moving to cold storage this week.

exceptional
To cold storage
$0.22
typical transfer
Consolidate
$0.55
five inputs into one
Fee rate
2 sat/vB
next-block target
Waiting
85,969
transactions queued

About as cheap as Bitcoin ever gets. If you have been putting off moving coins to cold storage or consolidating small amounts, this is the window.

Ryan's take

It costs about 22 cents right now to move Bitcoin from an exchange into a wallet you actually control. Consolidating several small amounts into one runs about 55 cents.

Cost is usually the excuse underneath "I'll get around to it." Twenty-two cents is not the reason. Fees drift with network traffic, but weeks like this one are the easy ones.

Steady Accumulation

$50 every week, never sold. What patience did over each horizon.

Weekly $50 purchases, by horizon$0$100k$200k$300k$2.6k$2.6k1yr$5.2k$5.0k2yr$7.8k$9.5k3yr$13k$24k5yr$26k$323k10yrMoney inWorth today
HorizonInvestedBitcoin heldWorth todayChange
1 years$2,6500.0332$2,619-1.2%
2 years$5,2500.0629$4,959-5.5%
3 years$7,8500.1211$9,540+21.5%
5 years$13,0500.3079$24,262+85.9%
10 years$26,1004.0946$322,688+1,136.4%

Past results describe what happened. They are not a prediction of what comes next.

Ryan's take

Here's the part I want you to sit with.

Over the past year, Bitcoin's price fell about 30%. Someone who simply bought $50 every week over that same year — never timing anything, never watching charts — is down about 1%.

That gap isn't luck, and it isn't cleverness. It's the opposite of cleverness. When you buy the same amount on the same day every week, a falling price buys you more, and the average takes care of itself. The person who tried to pick the bottom this year mostly picked wrong. The person who wasn't trying barely felt it.

Stretch the same habit out and the arithmetic gets easier to see. Ten years of $50 weeks is $26,100 put in, and an average cost of about $6,374 per coin against roughly $78,900 today. Not because that person was smart in 2016 — because they were still doing it in 2026.

Proverbs puts it better than I can: wealth gathered little by little is what grows. Wealth grabbed at in a hurry tends not to stick around.

None of that is a promise about the next ten years. It's a description of what patience did over the last ten, which is the only thing any of us can actually look at.

What A Saved Dollar Did

Inflation and money supply from FRED — the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Purchasing power of $10,000 set aside ten years ago$7.0k$8.0k$9.0k$10k20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

$10,000 set aside ten years ago, measured in what it buys today.

HorizonInflationMoney supply$10k now needsBitcoin
1 years+2.9%+5.1%$10,295-30.5%
3 years+8.7%+11.7%$10,873+202.5%
5 years+22.1%+11.4%$12,205+65.1%
10 years+38.4%+78.8%$13,836+13,517.1%
Ryan's take

While we're on the subject of patience, it's worth asking what the safe option did over the same stretch.

Ten years ago, $10,000 sitting in a savings account was $10,000. Today you'd need $13,836 to buy what that money bought then. The dollar lost about 38% of its purchasing power. Over the same period the money supply grew about 79%.

I'm not telling you to empty your savings account. Keep your emergency fund, keep money you'll need this year in dollars, and sleep well. But it's worth being honest that holding dollars isn't a neutral, no-decision choice. It's a slow one, and it's being made whether or not you think about it.

These numbers come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a few miles from where I'm writing this.

Self-Custody & Security

Keeping your coins yours.

Trezor Suite 26.8.2NEW5 days ago
Ledger Live 4.17.0NEW6 days ago
Blockstream Green 3.5.111 days ago
Sparrow 2.5.326 days ago
BlueWallet 8.0.135 days ago
Bitcoin Core 31.148 days ago

Trezor Suite, Ledger Live shipped a new version in the past 10 days. If you use one of these, update through the official app or the maker's own site -- never through a link in an email or a search ad.

Address poisoning: the scam that uses your own history against you

The riskAn attacker sends a dust transaction from an address engineered to match the first and last characters of one you've used. Later you copy it out of your transaction history and send to the wrong place.
What to doNever copy an address from your history. Get it fresh from the recipient each time, and verify the middle of the address, not just the ends.
Ryan's take

Trezor Suite and Ledger Live both shipped new versions this week. If you use either, update it — through the app itself, or by typing the maker's site into your browser. Never through a link in an email or an ad at the top of a search result. Fake update prompts work precisely because doing the responsible thing is what gets exploited.

One habit worth building: when you send Bitcoin, don't copy the address out of your own transaction history. A scam called address poisoning exists to punish that shortcut — someone sends you a tiny, meaningless transaction from an address built to match the first and last characters of one you've used. Weeks later you scroll back, grab what looks familiar, and send real money to a stranger. Get a fresh address from whoever you're paying, and check the middle, not just the ends.

If any of this raised a question, ask me. That's genuinely what I'm here for — whether it's getting your first coins off an exchange, setting up a wallet you control, or sitting down with you to talk about what responsible custody actually looks like.

No pressure and no pitch. Reply to this, or reach out through the site, and we'll start wherever you are.